---
skill_id: calibrated-confidence-scoring
evaluation: free
price_usd_full: 6.99
challenge: https://lvlltd.com/api/pay?skill=calibrated-confidence-scoring
outline: https://lvlltd.com/skills/calibrated-confidence-scoring/outline.json
standards: x402, ERC-7857
---

# Free sample — Calibrated Confidence Scoring for Agent Outputs

**Skill ID:** `calibrated-confidence-scoring`  
**Full unlock:** $6.99 USDC via x402 on Base  
**Challenge:** https://lvlltd.com/api/pay?skill=calibrated-confidence-scoring  
**Outline JSON:** https://lvlltd.com/skills/calibrated-confidence-scoring/outline.json

## Summary

Stop shipping false certainty: produce confidence scores that track real accuracy—and wire them into agent outputs, including finance/analysis skills.

## When to use

- Agent outputs always sound ~80% sure whether right or guessing
- You sell or consume confidence_pct fields (analysis, triage, ranking)
- Buyers/agents need honesty gates before acting on a score

## Decision criteria (buy vs skip)

- You need this when: Agent outputs always sound ~80% sure whether right or guessing
- You get capability: Calibration dataset schema
- Budget fits: full unlock is $6.99 USDC on Base
- You can automate unlock via HTTP 402 without a browser
- You only need teaser/outline first — sealed src/ops stay locked until payment

## Outline (preview)

1. Inventory every confidence or probability field in the agent
2. Define labels and holdout evaluation (what “correct” means)
3. Build calibration tables / reliability bins from history
4. Choose a mapping (bucket hit-rate, temperature scale, or abstain band)
5. Enforce output schema: confidence_note + evidence + action_guard

## Capabilities (preview)

- Calibration dataset schema
- Reliability-bin calculator worksheet
- Confidence mapping policy (bucket → reported %)
- Abstain / “insufficient evidence” bands
- Hook for stock-performance-analysis and similar tools

## What you get after payment

- SKILL.md (teaser public)
- agent-install.json (public meta)
- src/index.js (stub public; full after unlock)
- Full sealed: src/, schemas/, ops/* (when present) after verified X-PAYMENT

## Agent buy path (zero human UI)

```
GET  https://lvlltd.com/skills/calibrated-confidence-scoring/outline.json
GET  https://lvlltd.com/api/pay?skill=calibrated-confidence-scoring   → HTTP 402
# transfer maxAmountRequired USDC to payTo on Base
POST https://lvlltd.com/api/pay
  X-PAYMENT: {"txHash":"0x…","skill":"calibrated-confidence-scoring"}
# response.sealed_pack.files = full pack
```

## Sample excerpt

# Calibrated Confidence Scoring for Agent Outputs

**Price:** $6.99 USDC  
**Category:** Trust  
**Version:** 1.0.0  
**Protocols:** x402, ERC-7857  
**Tags:** trust, calibration, confidence, honesty, rlcr-inspired, agent-ops, premium, x402  

## Summary

Stop shipping false certainty: produce confidence scores that track real accuracy—and wire them into agent outputs, including finance/analysis skills.

## Description

Original LVL kit for calibrated confidence on agent outputs: reliability diagrams, binning, temperature/post-hoc calibration patterns, and product rules so agents cannot emit a high % without evidence. Inspired by published work on training/scoring methods that reward calibrated confidence rather than uniform overconfidence—not an MIT product. Direct internal use case: stock-performance-analysis must map confidence to walk-forward buckets (already the product policy); this pack generalizes that discipline to any skill emitting probabilities.

## When to use

- Agent outputs always sound ~80% sure whether right or guessing
- You sell or consume confidence_pct fields (analysis, triage, ranking)
- Buyers/agents need honesty gates before acting on a score

## After purchase (lvlltd.com)

1. Pay USDC on Base via x402 to the treasury
2. POST `/api/pay` with `X-PAYMENT: {"txHash","skill":"calibrated-confidence-scoring"}`
3. Receive `sealed_pack.files` (code + docs)
4. Install: `node scripts/install-unlocked-pack.mjs unlock.json ./skills`
5. `import { createSkill } from './skills/calibrated-confidence-scoring/src/index.js'`

## Standards

- x402 micropayments (Base USDC / USDbC)
- ERC-7857 sealed iNFT ownership record (marketplace unlock ≠ runtime design)
- Operational packages ship as sealed pack files after verified payment

## Safety

- No secrets, private keys, or exploit content
- Human escalate on high blast-radius actions
- Not legal, tax, medical, or financial advice